Upcoming UFC event : Pereira vs Hernandez prediction

Hernandez vs. Pereira (aka UFC Fight Night 245, UFC on ESPN+ 103 and UFC Vegas 99) will take place on October 19, 2024.

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira (aka UFC Fight Night 245, UFC on ESPN+ 103 and UFC Vegas 99) will take place on October 19, 2024, at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, United States.

I’m previewing the middleweight main event headlining UFC Fight Night between Michelle Pereira and Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez.

Let’s do a quick tail of the tape between these two. Michelle Pereira will be 31 years old by the time this fight takes place, same with Fluffy Hernandez. He’s 6’1″ to 6 feet tall, with a reach of 73 to 75 inches, so it’s fairly even. Pereira has a lot more fights, but they are the same age, and height and reach-wise, they are very similar.

In Sportspedia’s Pereira vs Hernandez prediction, Let’s start first with Michelle Pereira. He’s 31-11, with two no contests. He has 11 knockouts, nine submissions, and 11 decisions. He’s currently ranked number 14 in the middleweight division. He has a one-inch height advantage in this fight, with no difference in reach or age. Pereira has won performance of the night five times and fight of the night two times. He trains out of Extreme Couture and is a BJJ black belt. Pereira did not have an amateur debut; he went straight to the pros back in December 2011. He made his UFC debut in May 2019 against Danny Roberts, where he got a first-round flying knee and punch knockout, earning performance of the night.

Pereira is 9-2 in the UFC with five finishes but doesn’t have any notable wins. You might mention Nico Price or Ponzanibbio, who was ranked at one point, but he doesn’t have any ranked wins. Even his last few fights were against subpar competition, and he doesn’t have any major losses. The only notable loss he has is to Diego Sanchez due to an illegal knee, which was a result of some fight IQ issues. He also lost to Tristan Connelly because of bad fight IQ. Both Sanchez and Connelly are no longer with the UFC, so this is one of the first times I’ve done an early look where there are no notable wins or losses in a fighter’s career, which is a bit strange given how many fights he’s had.

Pereira has been fairly active; you see a lot of canceled fights here, which were mainly his opponents pulling out. The only fight he withdrew from that wasn’t injury-related was against Steven Wonderboy Thompson. Pereira had to withdraw because he came in overweight, which wasn’t a title fight, and that was a fight we were all looking forward to. For the most part, he has been ready to go, with some weight issues but no problems making 185. He’s only had one major layoff in his career, from the fight with Ponzanibbio to Andre Petroski, which was a 511-day layoff. Other than that, he’s been competing almost once or twice a year, so he’s been quite active, having fought three times this year already—March, May, and now October. That’s great for a lot of fighters.

Pereira has gone the distance before, but there haven’t been any major controversies in his decision fights. The Ponzanibbio fight, which ended up being a split decision, was a bit closer than some might have thought. Looking at his stats, he lands an average of 5.16 significant strikes per minute, which is a high number, with a striking accuracy of 54% and a striking defense of 58%. He doesn’t get hit that much. He averages 1.53 takedowns with a takedown accuracy of 55% and an impressive takedown defense of 94%, which could be key in this fight since Anthony Hernandez is very good on the ground. Pereira has only had a couple of fights at middleweight, so this matchup is intriguing.

Now let’s talk about Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez. He has a record of 12-2, with two knockouts, eight submissions, and two decisions. He’s currently ranked number 13, which makes for good matchmaking with Pereira ranked at 14. Hernandez is also 31 years old, 6 feet tall, and has a 75-inch reach, giving him a two-inch reach advantage in this fight. He has two performance of the night bonuses, one against Rulon Vieira and the other against Raman Kopilov. Hernandez is a BJJ brown belt and trains out of MMA Gold and Marinoble MMA in California.

He made his amateur debut in October 2011, going 9-1 as an amateur, with just one loss by submission. He turned pro in September 2014 and made his UFC debut in February 2019 after coming off the Contender Series. In his initial fight against Jordan Wright, he dominated, earning a knockout win that was later overturned due to a marijuana test. Regardless, he obliterated Wright in that fight, which was significant for his career. His UFC breakthrough came with a win over Brandon Allen, which has aged well, as Allen has performed well in the UFC.

Hernandez’s early UFC career was rocky, going 1-2, with losses to Marcus Perez and Kevin Holland. However, since then, he’s gone 6-2, with five stoppage victories. His most notable win is likely against Edmund Shabazian, who was ranked at one point. Another solid win was against Kopilov, where both fighters were seen as prospects.

Hernandez has had several layoffs, which can be concerning. He experienced a 273-day layoff between fights, and he’s had multiple fights canceled due to injuries or other reasons. He was supposed to fight Puna Soriano in 2021 but had a hand injury and withdrew from other fights due to undisclosed reasons. Most recently, he was set to fight Ikram Aliskerov but ended up facing Kopilov instead, winning convincingly.

So, with both Pereira and Hernandez, there are lots of unknowns and potential for both fighters to prove themselves in this matchup.

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